2015 elections Myth or Reality – Choose your warlord?

2015 elections Myth or Reality
Choose your warlord?

Read part 1 here 2015 Elections – GEJ the last Nigerian President?

Ret. General Buhari now famously called the peoples general has emerged the APC presidential candidate.  
Prof Osinbajo an active RCCG pastor in a master stroke from APC has emerged his running mate. With the calculation that it would pacify the christians which was necessary in no small part as an effective online campaign and otherwise forgiveable gaffes from Gen Buhari had painted him as a religious fundamentalist (with the singular goal of foistering sharia on the whole country). 

Even down right lies were added to this gaffes and in Nigeria it takes years for the truth to catch up with lies.

Such lies however have not been the exclusive preserve of the PDP camp but lies have also been spun in no small measure by the APC camp.

Even at that, the lies remain the weakest weapon in the arsenal of these two behemoths. 

The abuses going on round the supporters however are even more worrisome.  
Name callings by the supposed educated grassroot supporters who campaign and vent online.
Same by the prominent supporters who are allies of the two main candidates all sounding war cries.

Reports of northerners refusing to serve in GEJ campaign team, the absence of GEJ posters in the north. The threat of fire and brimstone by northern elites if Buhari loses (the events of post 2011 election in the north remains fresh in our minds). 
As at last week, drivers were afraid to drive branded Jonathan/Sambo buses from Kaduna to Kano fearing attacks. The buses were later driven by soldiers under armed guards to their destination, how it would be used without attacks is another thing.

And if we go by the threat coming from Asari Dokubo to start a war on the southwest if GEJ loses the election and we add that to the purported recent purchase of warships by Mr Government Tompolo then such threats should be taken seriously considering the fact that Lagos is accessible by sea and an attack can be launched using these warships. It is also a fact that arms remain readily available and in use in the Niger delta.

Mr President is known to be quiet in matters he should have spoken up about and he has not said anything concerning the warships nor the threat of war on Nigeria if he loses which I take as a taciturn approval by him.

Few days ago it was reported he went visiting James Ibori in prison in the UK.
Are the drums of war already beating?
Is it time for us to choose our warlords or can we still salvage the situation?

Election in the NE?

With the threats and venom from Buharis supporters in the north matched with that of his supporters in other parts (but with that of the north taken more serious because of post 2011 election violence) the likelihood of election taking place there is nil! 

If PDP or GEJ cannot campaign freely in the NE, then Buharis supporters have unwittingly created a loop hole for the cancellation of election there because elections cannot be adjudged to have been free and fair! And thus GEJ stays in power till elections can be conducted fairly!

If the election is cancelled in many states in the North and winner determined on the votes in the rest of the country; the likely outcome would be a deadlock! And GEJ still stays in power. 

If elections go well in all states around the country, (though I am waiting for the miracle that will happen in the NE to make that possible) and Buhari wins then the SS who have weapons and warship start a war deprive the nation of access to crudeoil or Buhari loses and violence starts in the north.

In all my permutations,  violence is the common outcome! 

So is it time to choose our warlords or negotiate a settlement that will satisfy all parties? 

Our potential warlords – na hypothesis o!

GEJ If he wins; commands from the villa and or the creeks

Buhari; will have no money to prosecute a war and his cashcows would most likely cut their losses and flee the violence, however across the country fights will break out leading either to massacres or guerrilla warfare.


Tinubu; will attempt to hold on and control lagos which is the commercial capital of west africa and an oil producing state.

OBJ; will attempt to take command of the south west defence forces, he wont spend his money however but will be useful to the SW in terms of experience. 

Tompolo; who has been empowered for years, battle tested and smart. He will at first defer to the central niger delta defence forces but later branch out when he realizes he doesnt need to wait for orders when he controls all himself.  it will lead to further balkinization of the niger delta as other warlords striving for control over oil will spring up.


Dokubo; will be involved in a tripatite power struggle but will focus more on him living to reap from his investment outside the country.


IBB; with nothing to lose will be the major financier of the northern defence forces fighting on two fronts, against boko haram and pushing towards the niger delta to retake control of nigerias oil in conjuction with the south west and south east.


The Solution?

I have been advocating for a unity government comprising the ruling party and the opposition parties to be formed.

Many people do  not remember what led Pa Obj to prison, it was his clamoring for an Interim National Government instead of fighting alongside the country for the actualization of the June12 mandate.

The country was not this heated on ethnic lines and the Nigerian army had dignity and was still wearing the invincibility toga, right now all those has been lost.

There is ethnic and religious tension ahead of this general election, these are not mere words but people now have the financial capacity to start and sustain a war! case in point is Boko Haram.

So times are different, the country is weak and the stakes are high.

Lets explore a two year unity government that will solve the South South, the opposition and preservation of Nigeria equation. 
Above all this will buy the youths the time to find and prop up their own true agents of change, after all both these candidates have two common flaws, they have ruled and failed the nation before (judging by the state of the nation) and are part of the older generation that destroyed this same nation.

This solution will save this country and help the youth explore better candidates from a newer generation, above all it will usher in true change!

What do you think?