2015 election myth or reality?
GEJ the last Nigerian president?
I have always been watching the Nigerian political scene but rarely commenting partly because I see a sea of selfish ambitions in garbs of service to the nation but focused on looting.
Even at that, I still believed there was going to be an election in 2015 especially with the vigor that pro Jonathan campaigners started the preparations for the 2015 presidential election using various groups.
I also watched as the North East slowly slipped a town at a time into absolute anarchy; when boko haram campaigned picked up after the death of President Musa Yaradua, I watched as stuffs we hear happening in far away countries started happening here. I naively believed a Nigerian could never be a suicide bomber it was the Arabs who could do such things until I started hearing of bomb blasts all over the north east and Abuja.
When it turned into a war, I had so much confidence in our soldiers to rout out these insurgents going by their track record of stopping the war in Liberia and Sierra Leone. I believed the army just didn’t want to appear brutal but alas I was wrong!
Instead, the blame game started; as people died the politicians played the deaths for maximum political gains. The religious bodies were not left out each group pointing accusing finger whilst ardent of all faiths got slaughtered.
Through this entire macabre din, the electoral dance began, not like it ever stopped but it picked up in tempo going higher daily. Then reached a crescendo with the NASS brouhaha at which point I stopped! And viewed the whole system with my macroscope and realized, it looks like we are all just being taken for a huge ride, a long con; there can’t possibly be an actual plan for any presidential election to take place in 2015! Not with all these signs
Let’s go back to the days of SDP and NRC in which baba Maradona himself Gen IBB took us all on a merry go round of a phantom transition to civil rule.
I remember he first said people should form their parties which they did, after awhile he found an excuse, created two parties, drew up manifestos for both, built party offices throughout the country, organised primaries, there were even debates on national TV which culminated in the freest and fairest election in the history of Nigeria and a Yoruba man defeated Alhaji Tofa in his own state in the north! Chief Abiola emerged the winner after 7 years of the long con only to die in prison because Gen. Babangida was actually taking us all on a ride! He planned for all to fail wasting resources to sell us that illusion.
Through this long ride, Chief Gani Fawehinmi was the lone voice who insisted and fought right from the start of the phantom transition saying Gen Gen. Babangida had no plans to leave power.
Ever since the aftermat1h of June 12, I haven’t seen Nigeria this tensed up over elections with the major opposition party threatening fire and brimstone and the ruling party using federal might it almost borders on impunity.
Do you see signs President Jonathan may have no plans for any presidential election holding in 2015 or is it just me reading meanings into this cacophony?
1. 1. Insurgency in the NE. The government body language towards the wanton bloodshed has been disappointing. Reports constantly stream out that soldiers are given orders to stand down when these insurgents invade. At other times soldiers lead the vanguard of people fleeing! We also get reports of soldiers ordered to leave areas hours before boko haram fighters strike! We also hear of poor motivation of our soldiers which means these men aren’t paid enough to encourage them put their life on the line despite the billions of dollars gone down the prosecution of this war.
We can divide that body language into two, that of the federal government and the state governments own. The state governments resisted the imposition of a state of emergency in their states to combat the threat early on, this I construed to be succinct support for the insurgents, even at a time, notable Nigerians called for amnesty and integration of these killers into the society, now we are all wiser.
The federal government on her own showed a government doing just barely enough to contain the insurgency leaving the area perpetually under siege. How will elections be conducted in these areas when a war is ongoing there?
Some will argue that the CIC effort is being sabotaged and say President Jonathan is weak, but his response when it comes to political affronts paints a totally different picture!His political foes have so many bruises to show for their affronts, states brought down to their knees, titan governors forced out of PDP, of recent the violation of our hallowed NASS!
He possibly can’t be weak and strong at the same time which means whatever he is doing is by design!
So, Is there a design to keep Nigeria in a perpetual state of war and uncertainty which will make it impracticable to hold elections?
See section 135 of the Nigerian constitution with focus on sub section 3.
135. (1) Subject to the provisions of this Constitution, a person shall hold the office of President until –
(a) when his successor in office takes the oath of that office;
(b) he dies whilst holding such office; or
(c) the date when his resignation from office takes effect;
or
(d) he otherwise ceases to hold office in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution.
(2) Subject to the provisions of subsection (1) of this section, the President shall vacate his office at the expiration of a period of four years commencing from the date, when –
(a) in the case of a person first elected as President under this Constitution, he took the Oath of Allegiance and the oath of office; and
(b) in any other case, the person last elected to that office under this Constitution took the Oath of Allegiance and oath of office or would, but for his death, have taken such Oaths.
(3) If the Federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is physically involved and the President considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years mentioned in subsection (2) of this section from time to time; but no such extension shall exceed a period of six months at any one time.
2. 2. INEC distribution of the permanent voter’s card. Despite the tens of billions of naira gone down the coffers of INEC, the distribution of the PVC which is supposed to be used for elections just weeks from now has been dismal. Blurred pictures, myriads of complaint, slow distribution, lost data! So who will vote when more than half of registered voters can’t vote because they don’t have their voter’s card?Yet within the next few weeks we are supposed to hit the polls, remember the constitution stipulates elections must be held between 60days to a minimum of 30days before hand over. And all those registered to vote…, shall be entitled to vote.. (see sub section 5 of section 132 below)
See section 132 of the Nigerian constitution below
“132. (1) An election to the office of President shall be held on a date to be appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
(2) An election to the said office shall be held on a date not earlier than sixty days and not later than thirty days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office.
(3) Where in an election to the office of President one of the two or more candidates nominated for the election is the only candidate after the close of nomination, by reason of the disqualification, withdrawal, incapacitation, disappearance or death of the other candidates, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall extend the time for nomination.
(4) For the purpose of an election to the office of President, the whole of the Federation shall be regarded as one constituency.
(5) Every person who is registered to vote at an election of a member of a legislative house shall be entitled to vote at an election to the office of President.”
To be continued
